2006 Predictions

As I have written before, I think challenging conventional wisdom is important to give depth to your perspectives.  My "Predictions" are nothing more than events that, while not likely to happen, are within the realm of possibility.  I think the mainstream view is too easy.  Let's flip it and throw out some variant predictions that might be in store for 2006.

2006 Predictions

1. The US experiences its first suicide bombing – I am going to stay with this one.  I believe our porous border and the emotional impact of such an indefensible attack on our soil will be too rich for Islamic radicals to pass up.
2. A blockbuster drug for male AND female sex drives is discovered.   It is approved in late 2006/early 2007 after successful testing throughout the year.  And it’s a nasal spray, not a pill.
3. Positive momentum in Iraq continues as over 25% of our troops begin coming home.  Such autonomy leads to less violence and a more structured political climate.  The confirmation of this phoenix rising is when a steady flow of Iraqi oil begins shipping worldwide.  This newfound optimism and hope leads to greater Iraqi approval of America and its democracy-producing efforts.
4. I'll try this one again.  Zarqawi will be captured before they put the tee in the ground at Augusta National in April.  Before being captured by Task Force 121, Bin Laden kills himself.
5. Movie theaters, in an effort to stem the decline of ticket sales, will begin offering discounted ticket prices for those movies that are not blockbusters or are not newly released.   Why shouldn't there by tiered pricing for an Adam Sandler movie that is 4 weeks old versus the opening night for Mission Impossible 3?  This will help, but will not be a panacea as home theater quality and newly released DVDs represent a secular shift in entertainment.
6. The housing bubble finally deflates.  Late in 2006, higher interest rates and too much supply lead to softening in prices.  This won't hurt homeowners but will be a major negative for real estate "flippers" and highly leveraged investors.  California, Arizona and Florida feel it the worst.
7. Because of the preponderance of Mexican laborers in the construction industry, I predict that the housing slowdown results in more exaggerated unemployment among Mexican immigrants.  This joblessness results in increased tension leading to a very public act of social unrest.  I am guessing in the South during the summer.  This act of civil disobedience further flames the debate over our immigration policies just in time for the November congressional elections.
8. A major college football/basketball program is implicated in a massive scandal, with a cover up going all the way to the Head Coach. 
9. Phil Mickleson wins the Masters, Padraig Harrington wins the British, Chris Dimarco wins the US Open and a no-name wins the PGA.  That's right, no Slams for Tiger in 2006, but he does give birth to a little boy.
10. Coca Cola has a company-changing transaction.  Probably by purchasing a food company. 
11. Oil stays relatively calm throughout the year – $52-$62/barrel, but we have an Iranian scare that sends oil over $75 for a brief time.   New Iraqi supply will lead to a drop in the $40s.  Merger activity will heat up in this sector as the big boys have huge cash balances and the smaller boys have coveted reserves.
12. I'll stick with a pick from last year that was moderately accurate.  There will be a huge hack on a popular website, maybe eBay, leading to public outrage that their personal information was not more protected.  This will lead to 2006 being the year of Digital Security.
13. Hickney gets divorced.  K-Fed's album is a complete disgrace.  Jessica begins dating a well-known actor by summer and is engaged before year end.  Jessica's man, Nick, gets a TV show that absolutely bombs.  Eva gets pregnant with my baby.  Mariah adds another 10 pounds, but Janet loses her weight.  My freebie list gets a new addition.
14. Venezuela will become Public Enemy #4 after North Korea, Iran and Syria.  Venezuela leads an anti-American parade throughout South/Central America, often using oil as political bait.
15. After last year’s devastation and endless speculation that we are entering a new hurricane cycle, I predict that we have a less than average year of hurricane activity.
16. A blogger will break a HUGE news story on his blog, leading to continued scrutiny of the traditional newspaper’s relevance and continued ascension of blogs as a viable information channel. 
17. America uses military force against Syria.  Nothing more than a few missles, but a warning for Syria to stay out of Iraq and away from Iran.
18. Al Qaeda attacks Italy.  Probably Rome.
19. Iran’s nuclear ambitions lead to a crisis in the international community.  Israel considers military action, before an US/European-sponsored settlement is reached.  The EU is moved to act by recognition that they are not immune to the hate of radicals.
20. Villanova wins the NCAA title in March.  What happens to Dook?  Coach Krybaby proves once again that for all of his motivational and recruiting excellence, he is only a decent gameday coach.
21. Joe Lieberman leaves the Democratic Party.  And it strengthens his Presidential aspirations by walking a moderate line between the Religious Right and Hillary's "Liberalism" (a word I hate and only use mockingly).
22. The Canadian Oil Sands becomes a hot topic for oil and gas reserves.  Good weather, decades of supply, and a stable political system make this energy project “the next big thing”.  Why deal with religious fanatics in the Middle East when we can deal with our northerly neighbor?  The mainstream media discovers this “story” in the fall.
23. The wire tap/spying fires are fueled by Democrat vitriol in an effort to influence the 2006 elections.  They even go so far as to get an indictment of Karl Rove, leading to his resignation.  Democrats misread the climate again when it becomes apparent that the American public is more concerned with their safety than their privacy.  The failed public relations stunt compromises a Democratic surge in the 2006 elections.  The Democrats gain seats in both houses, but not enough to take control.
24. iTunes will begin offering a tiered pricing grid based on popularity, release date and number of songs purchased from the album.
25. Condi Rice avoids the wire tap/eavesdropping/CIA leak stories and emerges as a paragon of virtue and integrity.  Her political savvy negotiating the Iranian crisis puts her at the forefront of the Republican Presidential nomination. 

Some of these are ridiculous, others are well-founded.  If I missed anything, let me hear about it.

Leeeettt's geeet reeeaaaaddddyyyy to ruuuuuuuummmmmbbbbblllle!!!!!

Comments

[Duke Fan]

I hate computers!!! Mine has been on the blink since this weekend. A late Merry Christmas to all of you.

Interesting list JB3. Except your Duke prediction is so wrong. Coach K is the best coach of all time and this year's team will give him his 4th championship.

I predict that there are impeachment proceedings against Bush when the full extent of this spying case is determined. It is not too far-fetched.

[Corker]

Duke fan - what about a different perspective? This country is at war - a war that started due to a terrorist attack grander than any of us thought we'd ever witness - and the president is keeping an eye on all of us because, somewhere in the mix of our neighbor Joe Schmo and the coffee guy down the street - there were terrorists that rocked our world. We're at war with a twisted idealism and these people have infiltrated our society and are waiting for our guard to drop.

I personally want the president to know when people or organizations have contact with countries who harbor terrorists. I'm willing to forego some of my civil liberties so that I can feel safe travelling or simply walking down the street. I am not surprised or offended by the spying. Think of it like grocery store surveillance on a grander scale.

An American wins the Tour De France this summer. May be not a Discovery Team member, but an American.

[Fact Checker]

JB 3,
Your revelation about a blockbuster drug intended for Male/Female users via an inhaler has been in the works for years (PT-141) and is currently being tested on lucky participants even as we go to print.
Norman, OK experienced a suicide bombing this fall during an OU game outside the stadium. Granted, the person was not an Islamic redical BUT and fortunately noone was killed except the deeply troubled young man.
As for your fourth prediction, one needs only to pick up the most recent copy of Playboy and read the interview with Mark Cuban, the visionary and often outspoken owner of the NBA's Dallas Mavericks, to see that such an idea is about to come to fruition. But let's not give up hope just yet for a panacea of some kind.
How about American Men finishing 1 and 2 in the Combined Downhill in Turin this Winter. Alas, what better a stage for an attack in Italy ?
An an attempt on Hillary by some domestic zealots and subsequent withdrawal from public cervitude by Condaleeza, after much hand-ringing and advisement.

[Unknown Comic]

Where can I get my hands on PT-141 ? I would love to give it whirl while enjoying the effects of liquid ecstasy next weekend while in Stockholm.
How about this for a prediction in '06 ? Me having an allnight threesome w/ 2 petite 20 somethings while enjoying said "cocktail" and coming home with scabs on both knees the size of the patches on my former theology professor's tweed jacket. Take that, counselor !

[JoeBlue3]

Fact Checker,
-Yes, PT-141 was what I was referring to. I am obviously hesitant to mention stock names because getting fired does not fit in to my financial plan. I think the drug has a chance but it is still a HUGE long shot as evidenced by the stock price.
-I think most people would realize that I was referring to an Islamic radical intent on mass casualties. Don't know what facts you are checking there.
-I didn't know that Playboy had articles. Mark Cuban is a lot smarter than me so whatever he said is probably right. My main influence on that prediction was from Barry Ritholz.
-Can't wait for the Olympics. I think I like the Winter Games better than the Summer. But I don't think that will be when AQ attacks.
-Interesting call on Hillary.

[so'n]

JB3,
For the record... and as I've been accused (wrongly!) of being a fact checker - the post above was not from me. As IIWII fills the complete void of clever conversation in my office... I don't want you to kick me out of your sandbox!

BTW - Drop BLINK for the holidays if you're not already done - way too serious. I started re-reading David Sedaris - Dress Your Family in Corduroy and Denim. If you've never read any of his stuff, I guarantee you will like it. Hands down the funniest books I've ever read.

[Fact Checker]

This is invigorating. Kind of like sleeping with my former husband's tai chi instructor a few years ago minus the guilt. Anonymous correspondence with a blog site and it's curator seems so boring on the surface but it isn't. Who knew ?
JB 3, I was merely pointing out that the bomber in Norman intended to take a few people with him and as a copycat the influence has already been fealt here within our sieve-like borders.
I must add this. The Unknown Comic is a gal. 32 with 2 kids. I don't what the demographic of this site is but there probably aren't many of her floating by.

[JoeBlue3]

so'n- I knew it wasn't you from the writing style. Just ordered your Sedaris. I'm in to the facial recognition in Blink and thinking about it's applications across so many parts of our lives.

Fact Checker - thanks for stopping by here. Don't mind being challenged a bit. I don't think you are right on the Unknown Comic. I think it is a guy whose writing style is familiar.

As for our demographic, I think you would be surprised how many women with kids we have here.
Whoever you are, thanks for contributing. Getting a little feedback, positive or negative, is always welcomed.

[dESTINiNK]

Testy, testy.
Not feeling the love from FC. Facts are great but one-up'smanship is rude at another man's crib.
As for Tiger, if he has a baby boy, he will be slammin' something!
So here I sit at the beach, trying to figure out how in the fug I'm gonna get me a hat. -di

[JoeBlue3]

No worries di, a little heat is good for the kid. FC is nothing like a few of the visitors we have had. I got called everything in the book a few months ago.

Hat- Out your front door, go left 4 houses, knock on door, use your manners.

[Arlene 10:13]

kinda reminds me of somepin my momma used to say when we wuz carryin on about our female conquests and the number of beers we'd had the night before ... "Boys, it's the ones who's talkin the most thats gettin the least." Over the years I've learned you can apply to poontang, alcohol, drugs or even enchiladas.

Woke up this mornin bout 10:13, six pack of stout & a stick of sinse

[Carl Nalbone]

What about a comet collision this year the likes of the one 65 million years ago? I understand Annie Stanton is going oujt on a limb with this one.